Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 10.850280 12.443436 14.156565 16.131717 18.342028 20.735091 23.517799
2025-10-26 8.323540 10.445548 12.904416 15.948089 19.597095 23.813000 29.033000
2025-11-02 7.094400 9.437240 12.285010 15.971183 20.582785 26.125544 33.251463
2025-11-09 6.192329 8.684388 11.846777 16.106000 21.637443 28.517500 37.652854
2025-11-16 5.433230 7.987304 11.354199 16.049128 22.346811 30.413172 41.421206
2025-11-23 4.782142 7.348417 10.853847 15.901418 22.875494 32.049144 44.880790
2025-11-30 4.325446 6.921070 10.582932 16.010250 23.709517 34.078307 48.899163
2025-12-07 4.037568 6.702188 10.572571 16.459179 25.008015 36.762416 53.885740
2025-12-14 3.609827 6.224899 10.139243 16.252299 25.343793 38.108814 57.061678
2025-12-21 3.119190 5.596804 9.422760 15.562455 24.917901 38.335082 58.641757
2025-12-28 2.946771 5.461437 9.443926 15.976141 26.124560 40.926124 63.669730
2026-01-04 2.762307 5.286297 9.384228 16.251176 27.122661 43.239129 68.366708
2026-01-11 2.508393 4.972633 9.083953 16.135420 27.528616 44.716444 71.935144
2026-01-18 2.270904 4.663951 8.766430 15.966734 27.835872 46.050820 75.337160
2026-01-25 2.092260 4.442336 8.574766 15.984447 28.426628 47.823263 79.444920
2026-02-01 1.950388 4.274616 8.461321 16.121322 29.208761 49.912529 84.102826
2026-02-08 1.792750 4.059817 8.245821 16.063700 29.657672 51.483045 87.995159
2026-02-15 1.637878 3.833925 7.990985 15.916124 29.939452 52.785883 91.496801
2026-02-22 1.531532 3.695484 7.885881 16.024953 30.655533 54.806341 96.196950
2026-03-01 1.475889 3.657536 7.966992 16.474273 31.976844 57.858566 102.652957
2026-03-08 1.347598 3.449886 7.703784 16.267216 32.129501 58.972363 105.975751
2026-03-15 1.179488 3.135021 7.202951 15.576825 31.378633 58.530724 106.704140
2026-03-22 1.139049 3.106273 7.276276 15.990840 32.642286 61.548676 113.286418